Is the CDC Recommendation Preventing Wide Spread Vaccine Adoption?

Let's start by simply saying that we are relying on our institutions more than ever. It is undeniable that there has been an erosion of trust in these institutions for various reasons. As such, I couldn't help but notice that certain communities are skeptical about taking the vaccine. If we take a look at the CDC Recommendations and Ethical Principles, we should pause.

Are we missing an important factor to this vaccine rollout? How about building some brand loyalty? Brands establish trust. There is a reason so many people will reach for the name brand. They don't have all the information, but they have a sense of trust that helps them to shortcut the more involved decision making process. With this in mind, let's talk about the vaccine in a way that I never hear healthcare professionals discuss. Vaccines are a product and our institutions have a brand. These institutions should take a look at the Product Adoption Curve.

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As you can see above, the Product Adoption Curve is a Bell Curve (#GaussianDistribution #MathNerds #Nerdscanselltoo) that breaks the population into 5 groups. Now, in the marketing world, you will find that successful companies that are releasing a new product are mostly interested in the Innovators and Early Adopters on the left side of this curve. We will combine these two groups and refer to them as the 15%. It is a mistake to actually go after the middle of the curve. This classic mistake that people make when they launch products, can derail a good product before it reaches broad adoption. In doing so, people will often take their product and dumb it down to work for the middle of the curve. They end up producing "average" products which leads to no adoption at all because the middle of the curve actually needs the first 15% to engage with the product first and start to share or evangelize about their experience (#ThankYouSocialMedia #Facebook #Instagram #SnapChat #Twitter).

Why are the 15% so important? They are often willing to put up with an imperfect product on day one. This allows for rapid feedback and improvement to the entire system that is delivering the product. In the real world, this is just smart because it is lower risk to ensure you have a good approach before you waste big money scaling to everyone. The reality is that the vaccine requires the building and tuning of a system to deliver the vaccine. Any perceived issues with the system will ward off people on the right side of the curve from ever adopting your product.

A prime example of leadership failing to use proper thinking is in New Mexico. The Governor of New Mexico recently cancelled a vaccine clinic for teachers who are considered by many to be essential. These teachers also happen to be in a district with one of the highest average ages. As such, the 15% and the older ages could have been vaccinated with the opportunity to prototype clinics for all the other school districts. This decision represents a lack of understanding. Plus, adoption of taking the vaccine by community leaders such as the teachers could have been used to influence the families of all of their students. Instead, the clinic was canceled at the last minute when the students were given a day off from school to allow for the clinic. These actions cannot be described as trust inducing.

Let's talk about the overlap of two important distributions in our population. Earlier I mentioned how the school district allowed for the ability to vaccinate the all important 15%, essential workers, and people of an older age. If you are interested in getting an IPhone into the hands of everyone including your grandma, she might not be in the Innovators/Early Adopters groups which are more likely to build your momentum. What if the people that the CDC have accurately identified as the most in need of the vaccine are not likely in the 15%? Well, you likely end up with leaders threatening to pull the vaccine from states who can't get enough people to agree to take the vaccine. What this should lead to is states opening up the vaccines to a wider population. In fact, I believe they should honestly open the vaccine up to everyone. We can immediately capture that 15% and start to schedule appointments in order of risk factors. In many states, the messaging has been that we will start with people of certain risk factors, and I believe this is likely causing self-selection bias. If you think you don't meet the risk factors, you might not take the time to signup. Couple this with the elderly having issues signing up, and you could be completely missing the vast majority of the 15% you need for all the reasons mentioned before.

In the end, the real issue is that our institutions have not adopted many of the hard lessons about product adoption that the business world has squeezed out of years of experience building trusted brands and cherished products.